So, I am sitting in my living room reading about the upcoming trade wars the United States is starting with Canada, Mexico, Europe, and China.  Well, to be fair, it’s a trade war that is being started almost completely by Donald Trump himself.  But, as the head of the Executive Branch, the President speaks for the nation and has broad power to shape international relations, including trade, as he sees fit.

That this week will be bad for the markets seems abundantly clear.  In fact, I expect we are going to see drastic drops in the value of stocks and especially the value of tech stocks.  But why?  Why is he doing this, against the wishes of his party, the logic of economics, and the reality of our highly integrated global economy?

The answer, of course, is obvious I think.  Donald Trump is perpetrating the greatest con job since the Trojan horse was gifted to Troy.  I find it difficult to believe that a man with a well-documented history of cheating, stealing, and putting his needs above everyone else is irrationally tanking the markets without having a plan to benefit from his actions personally.

When you think about it…it’s three simple steps for him to make money:  short or bet against certain stocks, say or do something that targets the value of those stocks, and collect your profit.  And he can do it over, and over, and over again.

But to truly, masterfully execute the con, Donald Trump must not simply tank the markets; he has to be able to send them roaring back up again (after he’s acquired a sizeable share of discounted stocks).   How is he going to do this.  It’s easy to shatter complex systems, but very hard to build them back up.

But, there is one thing President Trump could do after single-handedly sending the economy plummeting; he could resign.  I believe what will precipitate this resignation will be a series of highly controversial moves related to the Mueller probe.  At some point, the indictments will get too close to Trumps inner circle: say Jared Kushner for example.   At some point after Kushner is indicted Trump will be indignant and tweet out that he will not allow his family to be targeted by the evil deep state. He will announce (via twitter) that Mueller is fired.  He will then, that same day, issue blanket pardons to everyone.

The ensuing week will be chatotic in almost every circle of American life: politically, economically, socially.  Washington will be in gridlock, protests will be everywhere and the very, very slow process of impeachment will begin.   The apparent gridlock with no reprieve in sight will severely impact the markets.   How will we ever pull ourselves out of this mess?

Trump will fire Mueller and issue blanket pardons in early September.   At this point, a battered stock market will take a serious plunge again.  Three days after he fires Mueller and pardons everyone, buy into the stock market as heavy as you can, because the fourth day after he fire Mueller he will resign and the Markets will soar.

Why do I believe the markets will go on a tear after Trump resigns?  Simple, because unlike many complex economic factors that generally govern booms and busts, this one will revolve around one simple variable: Trump is the president.  As soon as Trump resigns, the trade wars, the political uncertainty,  the targeting of key companies and industries will be over.  And the markets will respond with vigor.  And something tells me that Trump and his friends will invest very heavily in the markets at the point right before his sudden resignation is announced.

Trump gets away with playing dumb, confused, and angry.  I would never underestimate him or turn my back on him.  I believe he has a plan to exit his unexpected situation in a way that will finally make him and his family as rich as he has claimed for the last three decades.   As for me, I am pulling my modest funds from the markets and waiting for the clear signal to buy.

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